Fine: MTN Defaults; Then What?

November 16 is the day Nigeria expects to nudge its crumbling financial fortune.

MTN Nigeria has only hours left to pay $5.2 billion for failing to 'de register subscribers. That money is too important .

The fine has sent warning signals to investors all over the world .That, it might not be too wise to do business in Nigeria.

The CEO of the company resigned last week over the saga.

The head of the Nigerian Telecommunications commission, NCC, said last week that "Nigeria will not bow to pressures from MTN shareholders to reduce the fine"

But what happens if MTN calls Nigeria's bluff tomorrow? And economic news from Nigeria, even from its cagey Central Bank, shows all signs that MTN will default.

Here is a fact: $5.2 billion is 2 years' profit for MTN Group. And its operating cost is increasing as diesel gets more expensive.
They also make less money because Nigeria's purchasing power graph has gone South. People only spend on necessities.

Nigeria banks are going to sleep no thanks to mountains of bad loans . Plus a dead Oil and Gas sector.

MTN does not have the money. Its parent company does not have either. It is even more worried that they would fail South Africa's Pension management.

What ever MTN Nigeria earns now is Naira that it cannot do business with.

Most big companies in Nigeria have come out to announce losses or operating deficits. NNPC is one of them. MTN is no exception.

The next move, tomorrow as they fail to pay, will be Nigeria's.
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